The Rumor Mill #3: Tchouaméni Reopens. Hojlund Is Done. The £100m Question

Volume 03. The Real Madrid dressing room cracked open this week, and a name that had gone quiet on our board got loud again. Hojlund's exit has its trigger. Mainoo collected hardware. The Champions League money is in the conversation now, and so is the question of how to spend it.

TOP STORY: Tchouaméni reopens

Aurélien Tchouaméni — 🟡 SMOKE+

Two weeks ago this was a ceiling story. Romano called him a "dream target" for United. The BBC reported him as a top United target this summer. The Athletic had his name in United's internal meetings, with the caveat that the deal was complicated because Madrid's stance was a contract extension, not a sale. The structural problem was always Madrid. They didn't want to sell. The path required Madrid to land Rodri first and trigger a sale to fund it. That was the Volume 02 read.

That read changed this week.

On Wednesday, Tchouaméni and Federico Valverde had to be separated at Valdebebas after a foul in training escalated into a confrontation that continued into the locker room. Marca described it as one of the most heated exchanges ever seen at the Madrid training ground. On Thursday, it happened again, and this time Valverde left in an ambulance. Madrid confirmed via official statement that he sustained a head trauma and will need 10 to 14 days of rest. The club opened disciplinary proceedings against both players. Valverde will miss El Clásico. He released a 425-word statement saying he hit a table during the altercation, that no punches were thrown, and that the incident was the accumulation of a frustrating season.

That is the public version. The reporting underneath it is louder.

AS reported on Thursday that Madrid's stance has flipped. They were prioritizing a contract extension. They are now willing to sell. The asking price floated by AS is £70–80m. The same report places United in contact alongside Liverpool. United journalist Andy Mitten, who is consistently good on what is actually happening inside Carrington, says a deal is now possible.

Then Romano did what Romano does when a story gets ahead of itself. He cooled the temperature on his YouTube channel. He confirmed United's interest is real. But his framing was that Tchouaméni is "a dream target for Man United, but it doesn't mean that he is going to Man United because he had a fight with Valverde." Ruud Gullit went further. Nobody refuses Madrid. The only way out is if Madrid signs a replacement and tells you you're surplus. That replacement, if it happens, is Rodri.

So here is the structural picture.

The Volume 02 path required two things to happen in sequence. Madrid signs a midfielder, then sells Tchouaméni. The Valverde incident does not eliminate that path. It adds a second one. Madrid now has dressing-room cause to move him whether or not Rodri arrives. AS is reporting that the second path is opening. Romano is reporting that the first path still matters. Both can be true. United now have two routes to the same player instead of one, and one of them does not require Madrid to do anything except agree on a price.

That is why the rating moves from SMOKE to SMOKE+. The price is now public. The seller's motivation is now public. United and Liverpool are both in contact. Casemiro's contract expires at the end of the season and his departure is confirmed. Sky Sports reported this week that United's stated priority for the summer is "two elite-level central midfielders," not one. Tchouaméni is one of those two by every shortlist that has been reported.

What we are still missing is the part that decides this: a club-to-club bid, an agent confirmation that the player wants the move, and clarity on whether Madrid actually goes for Rodri this summer. Those are the next three dominoes. The Romano framing is correct. A fight does not move a player. A replacement does. The question is whether the fight accelerated Madrid's willingness to find one.

The £70–80m price tag also matters for a separate reason. We'll get to it in the Last Word.

RECAP: Last week's calls

Carrick — 🟡 SMOKE, narrowing The Volume 01 prediction is in its final stretch. Romano said this week that internally, Carrick is the "clear favourite" and that United were "probably waiting for Champions League football in order to make a final decision." They have it now. Ornstein's read three weeks ago was that Carrick was in pole position unless United missed the Champions League. They didn't. Casemiro's ESPN Brazil quote was unprompted and emphatic. The Volume 02 prediction of an announcement within seven days of the Liverpool result closes Sunday May 10. We are inside the final 48 hours.

Iraola — 🟡 SMOKE, Palace likely The El Chiringuito story this week claimed Iraola was "close" to Crystal Palace. Ben Jacobs at GiveMeSport called that "wide of the mark" and said it remains an open race, with Chelsea still a genuine suitor. Iraola is reportedly waiting until the end of the season to decide. Ornstein has confirmed Palace's interest. The Volume 02 structural read holds either way: Iraola was never the realistic United target the headlines suggested, and his best options are elsewhere. Palace is now the leading destination but it isn't done. Watch this in the next two weeks.

Hojlund — 🟢 EFFECTIVELY DONE Napoli have an obligation-to-buy clause that triggers on Champions League qualification. Romano confirmed it. Napoli sporting director Giovanni Manna confirmed it on the record: "There are no doubts. Rasmus will stay here. We have an obligation to buy from Manchester United, in case of UCL access, but he is in our plans regardless of this condition." Per Romano and The Athletic: €44m fee on top of the €6m loan, €50m total, with an €85m release clause kicking in from 2027. Napoli sit second in Serie A with three games left. The trigger is going to fire. Hojlund is gone.

Mainoo — 🟢 LOCKED IN AND DONE plus PL Player of the Matchweek Kobbie Mainoo wrote the ending against Liverpool and the Premier League rewarded him. The transfer noise around him in the spring is over. He is staying. He is starting. He is 21.

Cole Palmer — 🔴 KILLED United officially ruled it out via the Daily Express. The story is dead unless something changes about Bruno's situation, which leads us to:

Bruno's future — 🟡 SMOKE, leaning stay The Sky Sports sit-down with Gary Neville last week is the centerpiece. Bruno turned down a Saudi move last summer, said he hasn't achieved what he wants at United, and made it clear his decision to stay was about the trophies he hasn't won here yet. Sky reported in March that his decision rests on Champions League qualification (now secured) and Carrick (about to be confirmed). United are reportedly preparing a contract offer worth £400k a week. Florian Plettenberg of Sky Germany reported this week that Galatasaray have him as their "ultimate dream target" but do not see realistic chances now that United are back in the Champions League. Reading the room: Bruno stays. There is a candid admission piece worth doing on its own next week if the news cycle is quiet.

Sancho — 🟢 LOCKED IN to leave Sancho is on loan at Aston Villa for 2025/26. Per Romano and Sky, United have decided not to activate the 12-month option in his contract, so he will leave Old Trafford as a free agent on June 30. The Volume 01 prediction (Dortmund within six weeks of window opening) remains tracking. There was a social media row this week that doesn't change anything substantively, but it adds to the case that the relationship needs a clean break.

Ugarte — 🟡 SMOKE+, near-certain exit Romano upgraded the language this week. His exact phrasing on the Here We Go podcast: "I would say there is a 95% chance of seeing Ugarte leaving Manchester United in the summer transfer window. His agent is already working on solutions." Italian clubs are the leading suitors, with Galatasaray (Turkey) on the periphery. The structural consequence: with Casemiro on a free and Ugarte 95% gone, Romano has confirmed United now need to sign two midfielders, not one. That is the £150m question we'll get to in the Last Word.

Lewis-Skelly — 🔴 NOISE (with correction) Volume 02 had this as NOISE on price grounds. Given Diouf is the priority left-back target and Patrick Dorgu is already at the club, the Lewis-Skelly fit is interesting only as a hybrid utility profile. Still NOISE on price.

Diouf — 🟡 SMOKE+ The Guardian's Jacob Steinberg broke the United-Diouf story two weeks ago. Football Insider this week strengthened it: Diouf "ticks a lot of boxes" and is the "perfect profile" for what United want at left-back. The £19m figure was West Ham's purchase price last summer; United would have to pay a premium. Diouf has five PL assists this season, joint-most among full-backs. West Ham at 18th and fighting relegation. If they go down, the price drops. If they stay up, the price goes up. United are also tracking Eintracht Frankfurt's Nathaniel Brown and Newcastle's Lewis Hall as alternatives at the position. The Volume 02 prediction of Diouf as priority by end of May is still tracking. Three weeks left on that window.

van de Ven — 🔴 NOISE (downgraded) Volume 02 had this as SMOKE. The reporting since then has cooled. Per Ben Jacobs three days ago: "There has been no approach to Spurs, and as of now, there has been zero approach to the player side from Manchester United." Romano has also poured cold water, saying United's focus is midfielders and there is "nothing really serious or concrete" on the defender side. The player's preference, per Jacobs, is Liverpool over United. He's a Liverpool fan with family connections to the club. The wider story has shifted to Lisandro Martinez, where Football Insider reports United harbour "serious concerns" over his physicality after multiple injury-hit seasons. Centre-back is on the long-term list. van de Ven is not the answer this summer.

MOVEMENT THIS WEEK

Sir Dave Brailsford has officially left Manchester United's board, confirmed by Companies House on May 7 with a resignation date of April 30. He remains in the INEOS structure as Director of Sport and is back focused on the INEOS Grenadiers cycling team. Rob Nevin, chairman of INEOS Sport, replaces him on the United board. This isn't a transfer story but it matters for the structure of the football operation. Brailsford had already stepped back operationally a year ago. This is the formal end. Omar Berrada is now unambiguously the most influential figure in the football side of the building.

Éderson to United — 🟡 SMOKE+ Better reported than I had it last week. Ben Jacobs and Romano both confirmed United have made contact with the player side. Schira reported United are "ready to offer" €45m (£39m) to Atalanta to overtake Atletico Madrid, who agreed personal terms but couldn't reach a club-to-club deal. Per Mateo Moretto on Romano's channel, United have presented a contract offer worth €4.5m net per year, larger than Atletico's. Atalanta's asking price is €45-50m. Romano frames Éderson as a "backup option" rather than top priority — he's not the marquee replacement for Casemiro, but he could be the second of the two midfielders if the marquee target falls through. Watch this if United fail to land Anderson, who is favoured for Manchester City and has a £100m+ asking price.

QUICK HITS

Lewis-Skelly — 🔴 NOISE (see recap above) Marcus Rashford — 🟡 SMOKE. The actual situation, per Sky Sports: Barcelona have until June 15 to trigger the £26m option from his season-long loan. They are reluctant on financial grounds and considering proposing a second loan. United have no intention of renegotiating the fee. That standoff is the story. Mail Sport reports Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Aston Villa are all monitoring in case Barca walk away. Bayern Insider's Christian Falk has actively poured cold water on the Bayern interest. Rashford himself has said publicly he wants to stay at Barcelona. The most likely outcome is still some version of a Barcelona deal. The interesting outcome is if Barca walks and the bidding opens. Ugarte — 🟡 SMOKE (see recap above) Mateus Fernandes — 🔴 NOISE. Sporting midfielder linked again. The Amorim connection is doing the lifting in the headline, not concrete reporting. Sandro Tonali — 🟡 SMOKE. Romano this week confirmed Tonali "remains the name of Manchester United shortlist," with the qualifier that it depends on price, Newcastle's stance, and competition from Manchester City and Arsenal. Newcastle wouldn't let him go cheap and have no need to sell. The most likely outcome remains that he stays at Newcastle. But unlike Éderson, where United have actually contacted the player side, Tonali is shortlist talk without active engagement.

NOT RUMORS BUT WORTH A LINE

• Mainoo PL Player of the Matchweek, mentioned above, deserves its own beat. Goal against Liverpool, decisive moment, the youngest United player to win it this season.
• The Champions League money. Qualification is reported to be worth around £100m next season, with figures of £150m being floated for three signings. We'll talk about how that ties to Tchouaméni in the Last Word.
• Carrick FA Youth Cup venue criticism. He spoke publicly about the decision to host the final at a non-Old Trafford venue. The point was about the academy and what the club tells its young players about where they belong. It was the right thing to say and he said it without theatrics.
• Sancho social media row. Adds heat to the Dortmund move case. Doesn't change substance.
• Sesko fitness for Sunderland. Available. Expected to start.
• Casemiro free agent confirmation. Contract expires. Not renewing. Reports place MLS as the leading destination, with LA Galaxy and Inter Miami in the conversation. He spoke positively about Carrick this week to ESPN Brazil, which doesn't move anything but is worth the line.

NEXT WEEK WATCH

1. Manager announcement. Volume 02 prediction closes Sunday May 10. We are 48 hours out.
2. Madrid response to Tchouaméni. The discipline outcome is one signal. Whether Madrid moves publicly for Rodri is the bigger one. The Clásico is Sunday and Madrid is 11 points behind Barcelona with one game left for Barca to clinch the title. The summer postmortem starts Monday.
3. Sunderland Saturday + Bruno on 19. Bruno wears 19 this weekend. Quiet weekend or noisy weekend depends on the result.
4. Hojlund money allocation. Where it goes is the tell on whether the rebuild prioritizes a midfielder or a forward first.
5. West Ham final-day position. Determines Diouf's price ceiling.

LAST WORD: PREDICTIONS

Tracking from previous volumes, plus two new ones for Volume 03.

Vol 01 P1 — Carrick announced as permanent head coach by mid-May. Tracking. Final 48 hours. Vol 01 P2 — Sancho to Dortmund within six weeks of window opening. Tracking, with revised mechanism. United are not activating his option, so he leaves as a free agent on June 30. Free agents can sign for foreign clubs from January, so Dortmund have had a runway. Window opens in six weeks; the Dortmund call still stands. Vol 02 P3 — Manager announcement within seven days of Liverpool result. Final 48 hours. Closes Sunday May 10. Vol 02 P4 — Diouf is priority left-back target by end of May. Tracking. Three weeks left.

Vol 03 P5 (NEW) — Tchouaméni signs for United this summer. Caveat openly: this is the most speculative call we've made. Romano is right that a fight does not move a player. But three things are true at once. Madrid's public stance flipped this week from "extend" to "willing to sell." The price is now reportable at £70–80m. United have made what GiveMeSport calls a "formative approach" on the player side, which matches what Andy Mitten and the BBC have been hearing. The Champions League money pays for it. The midfield slot is open. The shortlist sits him at the top. Calling it.

Vol 03 P6 (NEW) — The summer rebuild prioritizes structural depth, not a marquee #10. The reported numbers: Sky Sports has United making around £200m next season, roughly half from the upcoming window, with up to £100m from Champions League qualification. The Daily Mail's Chris Wheeler reports a £150m budget specifically for three midfielders, broken down as £80m for the Casemiro replacement, £50m for the Ugarte replacement, and £20m for depth. Ornstein and Sky have also reported left-back is a priority position, with Diouf, Lewis Hall, Lewis-Skelly and Eintracht Frankfurt's Nathaniel Brown all on the radar.

The two reports overlap on what matters: United are spending on structural needs, not glamour. Romano has confirmed two midfielders are near-certain because of Casemiro plus Ugarte, with a third possible. The cost-cutting side adds room: Hojlund's £38m sale becomes guaranteed when Napoli's CL trigger fires, and Rashford and Zirkzee are also expected to be moved on alongside Ugarte.

The call: not a marquee creator. United already have Bruno, Mainoo, Mount, Amad, Cunha and Mbeumo in the attacking ranks. They do not have a left-back to compete with Shaw, who is 30 with a long injury history. They need a midfielder to replace Casemiro, and another to replace Ugarte. The structural argument for spending on a Palmer-type signing is weak. The structural argument for midfield depth and a left-back is strong. Calling it.

That's Volume 03. Next volume drops after the manager announcement and the Sunderland match, whichever produces more news. See you then.